Backcasting

I’ve been experimenting with the idea of backcasting more in my work and I’ve been amazed by its impact. Backcasting involves starting with the outcome, defining the output space, and then walking back step by step to figure out how to get there.

At Bain, this has been particularly impactful. Alignment between me and my team on what I’m doing is essential, and so when I’m assigned a task, defining the output before anything else is often the best way to approach things. The team knows what I’m building towards and then I can figure out how to get there.

But why is this so useful? This is the idea that I’m trying to parse. Ideally, I’d like to get to a state where I can say “the default way a brain or a collection of brains work is that they do X. This allows for Y which helps Z.” Here’s my hypothesis: when you’re assigned a task, you will implicitly assume that you have an understanding that aligns with that of others. So, you’ll start doing it, get to an output that may align or differ from what you initially imagined, show it to your team and then it’s not what they wanted. When you backcast and align on an outcome first, there are two things that happen: 1. you know that when you’re done, you’ll be done and 2. you’ll be far more 80/20 when solving the problem.

Both of these ideas relate to avoiding yield loss where your work doesn’t provide productive gains. When you know where you’re going, you can prioritize the tasks that will get you there. You avoid rabbit holes and instead focus on those things that keep you moving. Then, when you’re done, you’re probably done. You’ve aligned on the outcome upfront so there are likely fewer revisions needed.

Backcasting isn’t a cure-all, however. The more ambiguous the problem and solution space, the less backcasting works. There are times when a lot of the work upfront is just figuring out what the problem space is. If you don’t know the problem, forget about coming up with a proposed solution architecture. That said, I think backcasting can still be useful here. In essence, you simply start with your goal (perhaps the goal itself is defining the outcome) and then figure out how to get there. Sometimes, you’ll have to shift your goal based on what you learn, but at least having a sense of what you’re aiming for keeps you focused and aligned.